Ship Typhoon Avoidance Route Planning Method Under Uncertain Typhoon Forecasts

Formulating effective typhoon avoidance routes is crucial for ensuring the safe navigation of ocean-going vessels. From a maritime safety perspective, this paper investigates ship route optimization under typhoon forecast uncertainty. Initially, the study calculates the probability of a ship encountering a typhoon based on the distribution of historical typhoon data within the radius of seven-level winds and the distance between the ship and the typhoon. Subsequently, the minimum safe distance is quantified, and a multi-objective ship route optimization model for typhoon avoidance is established. A three-dimensional multi-objective ant colony algorithm is designed to solve this model. Finally, a typhoon avoidance simulation experiment is conducted using Typhoon TAMRI and a classic route in the South China Sea as a case study. The experimental results demonstrate that under adverse conditions of uncertain typhoon forecasts, the proposed multi-objective typhoon avoidance route optimization model can effectively avoid high wind and wave areas of the typhoon while balancing and optimizing multiple navigation indicators. This model can serve as a reference for shipping companies in formulating typhoon avoidance strategies.