High-resolution projection of wind energy in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East summer

Abstract Understanding the impacts of climate change on wind patterns and wind power potential is crucial for energy planning and resource management, particularly in regions highly vulnerable to climate variability, such as the Middle East. In this study, we used COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations at $${8\,\mathrm{\text {k}\text {m}}}$$ grid spacing to analyze summer wind pattern changes in the Middle East and their impact on the wind energy potential. Our analysis reveals that COSMO-CLM can effectively capture broad-scale summer wind patterns in the Middle East. However, considerable uncertainties were observed in coastal and mountain regions, highlighting the complexity of local wind dynamics. In particular, until 2070, we identified significant increases of up to $${0.7\,\mathrm{\text {m}\text {s}^{-1}}}$$ in median surface wind speeds throughout the Middle East, driven primarily by land-sea temperature contrasts. However, at the 150-meter level, we project significant decreases of up to $${1.0\,\mathrm{\text {m}\text {s}^{-1}}}$$ in the median wind speed attributed to changes in the frequency and intensity of the Persian Trough synoptic system in a changing climate. Regionally, this reduces the median potential wind energy by up to 7 GJ in six hours. These findings underscore the importance of considering surface and upper-level wind characteristics when assessing the impacts of climate change on wind energy resources. Furthermore, our study reveals a spatially heterogeneous pattern of changes in the wind energy potential throughout the region. Although decreases in wind energy are evident throughout the Middle East, particularly in inland areas and over the Mediterranean Sea, we also observe some increases in potential, notably over the Red Sea. In summary, our study highlights significant changes in wind characteristics in a changing climate, with implications for the future energy mix in the Middle East. These findings provide valuable information for policy-makers and energy planners aiming to sustainably harness wind energy resources in the face of climate change challenges.