Using Subducting Plate Motion to Constrain Cascadia Slab Geometry and Interface Strength

Abstract Subduction zones are home to multiple geohazards driven by the evolution of the regional tectonics, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. Past evolution builds the present‐day structure of the margin, while the present‐day configuration of the system determines the state‐of‐stress in which individual hazardous events manifest. Regional simulations of subduction zones provide a tool to synthesize the tectonic history of a region and investigate how geologic features lead to variations in the state of stress across the subduction system. However, it is challenging to design regional models that provide a force‐balance that is consistent with the large‐scale motion of surrounding tectonic plates while also not over‐constraining the solution. Here, we present new models for the Cascadia subduction zone that meet these criteria and demonstrate how the motion of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate can be used to determine the along‐strike variations in the viscous (long‐term) coupling across the plate boundary. All successful models require lower viscous coupling in the northern section of the trench compared to the central and southern sections. However, due to uncertainties in the geometry of the Cascadia slab, we find that there is a trade‐off between along‐strike variation in viscous coupling and slab shape. Better constraints on the slab shape, and/or use of other observations are needed to resolve this trade‐off. The approach presented here provides a framework for further exploring how geologic features in the overriding plate and the properties of the plate boundary region affect the state‐of‐stress across this and other subduction zones.