Monetary Policy as a Tool for Ensuring Economic Stability in the Russian Federation in a Changing External Environment

The subject of the study is the measures taken within the framework of monetary policy to ensure the economic stability of the Russian economy. The purpose of the work is to establish, based on econometric modeling, the degree of influence of the monetary policy on the inflation rate as one of the indicators of ensuring economic stability. The monetary policy tools are given and their characteristics are given. At the first stage, the role of monetary policy in the process of adaptation of the Russian economy to changes in external conditions is analyzed. At the second stage, an econometric model was compiled that links the inflation rate with the key rate indicator as the main tool of the monetary policy, which makes it possible to determine the degree of its influence on the inflation rate in the Russian Federation. The real and forecast values of inflation for the next three years are calculated. The scientific novelty of the research lies in obtaining up-to-date data that makes it possible to assess the effectiveness of the tools used to achieve economic stability in the face of changing economic conditions. As a result of the study, conclusions were drawn about the insufficiency of using exclusively such a monetary policy tool as the key rate to achieve price stability in the short term, given that the change in the key rate is fully translated into the dynamics of aggregate demand and inflation not simultaneously, but over three to six quarters, thereby emphasizing the need to take additional measures to faster adaptation to economic shocks and achievement of a targeted inflation rate.