Major clinical outcomes in patients with symptomatic versus asymptomatic atrial fibrillation: a Bayesian and frequentist meta-analysis

Abstract Background Although a rhythm control strategy is associated with an overall better prognosis in atrial fibrillation (AF), current guidelines suggest that only highly selected asymptomatic patients may be considered candidates for AF catheter ablation. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the association between symptom status and clinical outcomes in patients with AF. Methods A comprehensive search of Medline, the Cochrane Library, and Scopus was conducted up until September 30, 2024. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed independently by three reviewers. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to pool the evidence. Results A total of 36 studies, comprising 217,850 participants, were included. Frequentist analysis revealed no significant difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic AF patients in terms of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI)= (0.80, 1.17)], cardiovascular mortality (HR= 1.04, 95% CI= [0.72, 1.49]), thromboembolism (HR= 1.06, 95% CI= [0.87, 1.28]), stroke (HR= 1.06, 95% CI= [0.84, 1.34]), hospitalization (HR= 1.34, 95% CI= [0.89, 2.02]), and myocardial infarction (HR= 0.98, 95% CI= [0.70, 1.36]). However, symptomatic patients exhibited a 33% increased risk of new-onset heart failure (HR= 1.33, 95% CI= [1.19, 1.49]) and a 30% reduced risk of progression to permanent AF (HR= 0.70, 95% CI= [0.54, 0.89]). Bayesian analysis produced similar results, although the association between symptom status and new-onset heart failure was not statistically significant [HR = 1.27, 95% credible interval (CrI)= (0.76, 1.93); Bayes factor (BF10)= 1.2]. Symptomatic patients had higher odds of receiving antiarrhythmic drugs (odds ratio [OR]= 1.64, 95% CI= [1.33, 2.03]) and ablation therapy (OR= 1.47, 95% CI= [1.06, 2.05]) compared to their asymptomatic counterparts. Conclusions The risk of major clinical outcomes does not significantly differ between AF patients with and without symptoms. However, asymptomatic patients have a higher risk of progressing to permanent AF.