The Falling Returns to Education in Australia

Using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey for a sample of employees aged 28–38, this paper examines changes in returns to education between 2001–2011 and 2012–2023. The study controls for seven education categories (PhD, Master's, Graduate Diploma, Graduate Certificate, Honours, Bachelor's and Diploma/Certificate III/IV) using individuals with no post‐school qualifications as the reference group. Over the study period, there is a significant decline in the wage premia (returns) within all education groups, except PhD and Graduate Certificates. The extent of the decline varies by education category, gender, sector and across the wage distribution.