Low Earth Orbit satellite fragmentation rates are critically disrupting the natural night sky background

ABSTRACT The increasing accumulation of artificial space debris is introducing a new form of light pollution, which is progressively impacting night sky brightness and observational conditions for professional astronomy. This study quantifies the contribution of small objects to the diffuse light observed from Earth. Modelling indicates that the artificial component of space debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) alone can contribute between 3 and 8 $\mu$cd m−2 to the background brightness of the night sky, with projections for 2035 showing an increase to 19 $\mu$cd m−2. This development presents a new challenge for the protection of astronomical environments, as sky brightness will be influenced by solar cycle dynamics. Our results highlight the need for regulations aimed at controlling space debris accumulation to prevent further degradation of observational conditions in the future.