From fear to support? The role of benefit guarantees in EU multilevel welfare governance

Recent transnational challenges have spurred calls for an enhanced European Union (EU) social agenda. However, citizens in countries with strong welfare systems fear that increased EU involvement could trigger a ‘race-to-the-bottom’ in benefits. This article examines whether these concerns can be mitigated by guaranteeing existing welfare standards. Using a vignette experiment in Belgium, the analysis explores public preferences for welfare governance within the EU multilevel system, conditional on safeguarding benefit levels. The findings show that, when benefit levels are guaranteed, support for the presented welfare policy is generally neutral to positive across governance levels. This suggests that fears of a ‘race-to-the-bottom’ can be alleviated when citizens are confident that welfare standards will be maintained. Despite hesitant endorsement of alternative governance arrangements, preference for the status quo persists.