IMF programs and borrowing costs does size matter?

This paper studies whether IMF programs and their size affect borrowing costs by comparing bonds issued immediately before the onset of the program with bonds issued immediately after the program. We show that, on average, the approval of the program leads to a 72-basis points reduction in borrowing costs and that program size matters. Our point estimates indicate that when program size increases by one percent of GDP, borrowing costs decrease by 23 basis points. We also show that program size mostly matters for ex-post programs (i.e., those implemented during crises). For precautionary ex-ante programs, there is some evidence that program size attenuates the reduction in borrowing costs. However, this effect is small and in most cases IMF programs still lead to a statistically significant reduction in borrowing costs

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Publication Details

Journal
European Economic Review
Published
2025-05-22
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105070
Primary Topic
International Development and Aid
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

IMF programs and borrowing costs does size matter?

Salim Chahine, Ugo Panizza, Guilherme Suedekum
European Economic Review
International Development and Aid
article

IMF programs and borrowing costs does size matter?

Salim Chahine, Ugo Panizza, Guilherme Suedekum
article en

Abstract

This paper studies whether IMF programs and their size affect borrowing costs by comparing bonds issued immediately before the onset of the program with bonds issued immediately after the program. We show that, on average, the approval of the program leads to a 72-basis points reduction in borrowing costs and that program size matters. Our point estimates indicate that when program size increases by one percent of GDP, borrowing costs decrease by 23 basis points. We also show that program size mostly matters for ex-post programs (i.e., those implemented during crises). For precautionary ex-ante programs, there is some evidence that program size attenuates the reduction in borrowing costs. However, this effect is small and in most cases IMF programs still lead to a statistically significant reduction in borrowing costs

European Economic ReviewVol. 177
Bank of England (GB), Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (CH)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 78%
International Development and Aid
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