Research on the correlation between meteorological radar echo characteristics and lightning warning technology

Based on radiosonde, lightning locator, and meteorological radar observational data in the central region of Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2024, the correlation between radar reflectivity characteristics and lightning activities during thunderstorm processes is analyzed. The results show that within a range of 5 km around the target grid point of single-radar three-dimensional grid data, there is a strong reflectivity, with R −20°CMAX exceeding 31.29 dBZ at the height of the −20°C layer, the echo top height ET 18dBZ exceeds 10.61 km, the strong echo top height ET 30dBZ exceeds 9.61 km, the strong echo volume V 30dBZ exceeds 327.75 km 3 , and the echo volume ratio VR −10°C above and below the height of the −10°C layer exceeds 0.131.Within a 5 km range around the target grid point in the three-dimensional grid data of two consecutive radar-files, the change in the strong echo volume ΔV 30dBZ exceeds 192.15 km 3 , and the change in the echo top height ΔET 18dBZ exceeds 4.81 km. Comprehensive use of the above multiple parameters can be used as a warning indicator (probability of lightning activity, POL) for lightning activity within 30 minutes in the future within a range of 5 km around the target grid point. When POL is taken as a warning indicator according to 50, the probability of detection (POD) is 0.72, the false alarm rate (FAR) is 0.18, and the false omission rate (FOR) is 0.29. When POL is taken as a warning indicator according to 60, the POD is 0.63, the FAR is 0.096, and the FOR is 0.38. 基于2011−2024年山西中部探空,闪电及雷达资料, 分析雷暴过程雷达回波特征与雷电活动的相关性. 结果表明:当目标格点周围5km范围内, −20°C层高度存在超过31.29dBZ的强回波 (R -20°CMAX) , 回波顶高ET18dBZ超过10.61km, 强回波顶高ET30dBZ超过9.61km, 强回波体积V30dBZ超过327.75km 3, −10°C层高度上下回波体积比VR −10°C 超过0.131, 且连续两组数据, 强回波体积变化ΔV30dBZ超过192.15km 3, 回波顶高变化ΔET18dBZ超过4.81km, 综合对比目标格点各参数值与上述阈值, 可以作为目标点5km范围未来30min内的雷电预警指标 (POL) .