Modeling labor intensity of polymer composites products

The sanctions policy in the sphere of import of composite products stimulated the development of own production at the enterprises. Simultaneously, the challenge of forecasting labor intensity for manufacturing these parts and products arose, impacting both competitive pricing and state defense order costs. Given the lack of a normative base for determining the manufacturing labor intensity of such parts, the enterprises develop their own methods of its calculation. Limitations in using analytical, and in case of single production and experimental methods, lead to the construction of parametric models for calculating labor intensity. This article examines current methods for determining the labor intensity of parts and products. Based on 191 original part samples, this article presents multiple regression models that forecast labor intensity for manufacturing composite parts. Based on conducted studies it is revealed that the models, taking into account a wide range of parts design features, as well as their complexity, regulated by the work category, have a high coefficient of determination, but are characterized by low reliability, which limits their use for new parts. To build models, it is proposed to use dimensionless Patsyna criterion, conditionally describing the constructive features of parts. When building a multiple regression model using Patsyna criteria as factors, the coefficient of determination slightly decreases, but its reliability increases, which allows us to recommend the model for use.