Probabilistic Seismic Displacement Hazard Analysis of Earth Slopes With Shallow and Deep Sliding Surfaces

ABSTRACT The earthquake‐induced permanent sliding displacement along the slip surface is generally used to evaluate the seismic performance of earth slopes. This paper presents a probabilistic framework for assessing seismic displacements of slopes with multiple sliding surfaces. The new product of this analysis is a hazard surface of the joint annual rate of exceedance for a range of displacement levels associated with both shallow and deep sliding surfaces. The coupling effects of the sliding response at different slip surfaces are incorporated based on a developed seismic sliding analysis model. Three examples of hypothetical slope models with different yield coefficients are analyzed. The results are presented in terms of both joint hazard surfaces and the marginal hazard curves and are compared with those from the single‐sliding analysis. The proposed framework provides a comprehensive characterization of seismic displacement hazard for slopes with multiple sliding mechanism, and hence allows for a more complete performance‐based seismic design of these types of complex earth slopes.