Developing a Prediction Model for Real-Time Incident Detection Leveraging User-Oriented Participatory Sensing Data

Effective incident detection is essential for emergency response and transportation management. Traditional methods relying on stationary technologies are often costly and provide limited coverage, prompting the exploration of crowdsourced data such as Waze. While Waze offers extensive coverage, its data can be unverified and unreliable. This study aims to identify factors affecting the reliability of Waze alerts and develop a predictive model to distinguish true incidents from false alerts using real-time Waze data, thereby improving emergency response times. Real crash data from the New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT) and crowdsourced data from Waze were matched using the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm to differentiate true and false alerts. A binary logit model was constructed to reveal significant predictors such as time categories around peak hours, road type, report ratings, and crash type. Findings indicate that the likelihood of accurate Waze alerts increases during peak hours, on streets, and with higher report ratings and major crashes. Additionally, multiple machine learning-based predictive models were developed and evaluated to forecast in real time whether Waze alerts correspond to actual incidents. Among those models, the Random Forest model achieved the highest overall accuracy (82.5%) and F1-score (82.8%), and an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.90, demonstrating its robustness and reliability for real-time incident detection. Gradient Boosting, with an AUC-ROC of 0.90 and Area Under the Precision–Recall Curve (AUC-PR) of 0.90, also performed strongly, particularly excelling at predicting true alerts. The analysis further emphasized the importance of key predictors such as time of day, report ratings, and road type. These findings provide actionable insights for enhancing the accuracy of incident detection and improving the reliability of crowdsourced traffic alerts, supporting more effective traffic management and emergency response systems.