Predictive performance of Triple-D, Quadruple-D, and Mayo adhesive probability scores in ESWL for renal stones: a retrospective cohort study

This study aimed to compare the predictive performance of Triple-D, Quadruple-D, and Mayo Adhesive Probability (MAP) scoring systems in estimating stone-free (SF) status following extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) in patients with renal stones. This retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients who underwent ESWL between January 2020 and January 2024. Pre-treatment non-contrast computed tomography was used to assess stone characteristics and calculate Triple-D, Quadruple-D, and MAP scores. Patients were categorized into stone-free (SF) and residual stone (RS) groups based on imaging performed three months after treatment. Residual fragments of < 4 mm were defined as SF. The study included 198 patients (60.6% male; mean age 45.5 ± 13.1 years). According to logistic regression analysis, a low MAP score (< 2.5) was the strongest independent predictor of SF status (OR: 15.5; 95% CI: 5.1-47.1; p < 0.001), followed by a high Quadruple-D score (> 1.5) (OR: 7.4; 95% CI: 2.2-24.1; p = 0.001) and low stone density (< 600 HU) (OR: 4.9; 95% CI: 1.1-21.8; p = 0.037). Conversely, a higher number of shockwaves and the need for additional procedures were associated with RS (both p < 0.001). Among the scoring systems, MAP score demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy with an AUC of 0.817, outperforming Quadruple-D (AUC: 0.722) and Triple-D (AUC: 0.639). MAP score was the most powerful and accurate independent predictor of SF status after ESWL, offering superior clinical utility compared to Triple-D and Quadruple-D scores in pre-treatment evaluation.