Life-Cycle Economics and GHG Emissions of Forest Biomass Harvesting and Utilization for Alternative Value-Added Bioproducts: An Integrated Modeling Framework

The life-cycle economics and greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions of forest biomass harvesting and utilization for value-added bioproducts were comprehensively evaluated via the development of an integrated modeling framework. Taking the eastern U.S. as the case region, the model innovatively integrated field studies, a Bayesian-based statistical learning model, techno-economic analysis, and life-cycle assessment. In specific, by investigating and summarizing the typical forest biomass harvesting systems across the region, the forest biomass harvesting costs were spatially grouped and mapped for four classified subregions across the eastern US. Overall, with 95% confidence the forest biomass harvesting cost is between USD 21.99 and USD 44.33/dry Mg, while the GHG emissions are between 14.79 and 98.80 kg CO2 eq./dry Mg. Furthermore, for the forest biomass utilization for four alternative value-added bioproducts, the minimum selling price (MSP) is USD 177.82/Mg for pellet fuel, USD 110.24/MWh for biopower, USD 1059.4/Mg for biochar, and USD 4.98/gallon for aviation fuel. The life-cycle GHG emissions are 149.80 kg CO2 eq./Mg pellet fuel, 52.22 kg CO2 eq./MWh biopower, 792.12 kg CO2 eq./Mg biochar, and 2.13 kg CO2 eq./gallon aviation fuel, respectively. Considering the uncertainties, 95% confidence intervals of MSPs range from USD 164.77 to USD 190.97/Mg for pellet fuel with an 81.85% probability to be profitable, from USD 100.20 to USD 120.21/MWh for biopower with a 49.38% probability to be profitable, from USD 1000.91 to USD 1109.25/Mg for biochar with a 79.51% probability to be profitable, from USD 4.86 to USD 5.54/gallon for aviation fuel with an 0.03% probability to be profitable. Moreover, the MSPs of pellet fuel and biochar are much less affected by the market changes than those of biopower and aviation fuel. However, the production of biopower and aviation fuel has lower carbon intensities than that of pellet fuel and biochar.