Crowd Assessment of the Military Utility of Future Technologies

Effective development of military capability in peacetime requires the ability to predict the implications of future technologies. To this end, technology forecasting is greatly important. This study adopts a design science approach to explore whether crowdsourcing and the anonymous, asynchronous involvement of experts through a web-based application could enhance the validity of an already-established method for military utility assessment of future technologies (MUAFT). A dedicated application was developed, designed to facilitate the development of assessments by engaging online participants. The modified method, consisting of the application and updated procedures, is demonstrated to effectively support asynchronous assessments while preserving the anonymity of participants. The modifications are thus likely to leverage the possibilities of crowdsourcing and to increase the overall validity of the method. While the demonstrated method shows promise, several areas for improvement have been identified, particularly regarding the application’s usability. To comprehensively evaluate the method’s validity and reliability, real-world assessments of future technologies involving large and diverse groups of experts and students are recommended.