Wellhead Stability During Development Process of Hydrate Reservoir in the Northern South China Sea: Sensitivity Analysis

Natural gas hydrates are a promising alternative energy source for oil and gas in the future. However, geomechanical issues, such as wellhead instability, may arise, affecting the safe and efficient development of hydrates. In the present work, a sensitivity analysis was performed on sediment subsidence and wellhead instability during the development of marine hydrates using a multi-field coupled model. This is accomplished by adjusting the corresponding parameters based on the basic data of the default case. Meanwhile, the corresponding influencing mechanisms were explored. Finally, design recommendations for operation parameters were proposed based on the research findings regarding wellhead stability. It was found that the wellhead undergoes rapid sinking during a certain period in the early stage of hydrate development, followed by a slower, continued sinking. The sensitivity analysis found that when the depressurization amplitude is small, the wellhead sinking is also minimal. To maintain wellhead stability during the development process, it is recommended that neither the depressurization amplitude or drawdown pressure exceed 3.0 MPa. Although a high heating temperature can increase gas production to some extent, the accompanying excessive hydrate dissociation may compromise the stability of both the formation and wellhead. To balance gas production and wellhead stability, it is recommended that the heating amplitude does not exceed 50 °C. In addition, the permeability influences the distribution of pore pressure, which in turn affects sediment subsidence and wellbore stability. Wellhead stability deteriorates as permeability increases. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately determine the reservoir characteristics (such as permeability) before developing hydrates to avoid wellhead instability. Finally, the investigation results reveal that using different versions of the investigation model can impact the accuracy of the results, and neglecting certain physical fields may lead to an underestimation of the wellhead sinking.