Adaptive recovery and regional response: The impact of an earthquake on tourism industry dynamics

This study examines the impact of the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila on the local tourism industry through the use of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). Our findings have revealed a sharp decline in tourism supply in the short term, due to extensive infrastructural damage. Although governmental aid facilitated a partial recovery, in the medium term, the sector's growth trajectory has remained significantly below a counterfactual scenario, thereby highlighting the limited adaptive resilience of L'Aquila’s tourism industry to exogenous shocks. This result underscores the necessity of targeted policy interventions to enhance the long-term recovery and resilience of the tourism industry. Furthermore, our findings offer valuable insights for disaster response strategies and emphasise the importance of adaptive recovery planning and investments in risk management, particularly in regions that are vulnerable to natural disasters. • The study aims to investigate the effect of an earthquake on tourism. • The case study is the 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake. • We use a counterfactual approach through the Synthetic Control Methods (SCM). • The effect of the earthquake is mainly negative for the tourism supply side. • The study has important implications for policymakers involved in disaster recovery.