Research on reliability evaluation method of anchor cable support system based on Wiener process

To investigate the degradation behaviour of anchor cables in fault activation areas and to effectively assess the reliability of anchor cable support, a reliability evaluation method for anchor cable support based on the Wiener process and a scientific on-site anchor cable replacement cycle were proposed. Utilizing the field conditions at the Lijiahao coal mine, the elongation of the anchor cable was selected as the performance degradation index. A degradation model for the anchor cable based on the Wiener process was established, and the maximum likelihood estimation method was employed to determine the pertinent parameters. Furthermore, the life probability density expression and reliability expression for the anchor cable were formulated. Ultimately, by integrating fuzzy theory with truncated distribution theory, a fuzzy reliability evaluation model for the anchor cable based on the Wiener process was derived. When a reliability threshold of 0.9 is set for the anchor cable, the application of the Wiener process within the fuzzy reliability evaluation model predicts a service life of 1313 h, compared to the 1701 h estimated by conventional models. The field-measured service life of the anchor cable is 1716 h, resulting in relative errors of 23.49% and 0.87%, respectively. This indicates that the fuzzy reliability evaluation model is more conservative than the conventional model.