Analysis of Precision Regulation Pathways for Thermal Substation Supply–Demand Balance

Under the dual imperatives of air pollution control and energy conservation, this study proposes an enhanced optimization framework for combined heat and power (CHP) district heating systems based on bypass thermal storage (BTS). In contrast to conventional centralized tank-based approaches, this method leverages the dynamic hydraulic characteristics of secondary network bypass pipelines to achieve direct sensible heat storage in circulating water, significantly improving system flexibility and energy efficiency. The core innovation lies in addressing the critical yet under-explored issue of control valve dynamic response, which profoundly impacts system operational stability and economic performance. A quality regulation strategy is systematically implemented to stabilize circulation flow rates through temperature modulation by establishing a supply–demand equilibrium model under bypass conditions. To overcome the limitations of traditional feedback control in handling hydraulic transients and heat transfer dynamics in the plate heat exchanger, a Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework is developed, integrating a data-driven valve impedance-opening degree correlation model. This model is rigorously validated against four flow characteristics (linear, equal percentage, quick-opening, and parabolic) and critical impedance parameters (maximum/minimum controllable impedance). This study provides theoretical foundations and technical guidance for optimizing secondary network heating systems, enhancing overall system performance and stability, and promoting energy-efficient development in the heating sector.