Exploring the spatial interplay between hydro-climatic extremes and armed conflicts in history

Abstract The Taiping Rebellion (1851–1864), the deadliest civil war in Chinese history, has been studied for its societal and climatic links, while its spatial dynamics remain underexplored. This study quantifies the spatial relationship between hydro-climatic extremes and armed conflict during the rebellion. Using panel Poisson fixed-effects estimation, we examine how droughts and floods influence the conflict occurrence both locally and in surrounding areas, applying buffer zones of 10 km, 25 km, 50 km, and 100 km. We cross-validate results using both Qing administrative boundaries and 100 km × 100 km grid-based spatial data. Our findings show that floods, more than droughts, significantly increase the likelihood of local armed conflicts, with the strongest correlation found within a 10 km radius. This spatial pattern may reflect the limited mobility of displaced populations in late Qing China. The study underscores the importance of spatial context in understanding climate-driven conflict risks in vulnerable regions.