Hawkish leaders and foreign policy: A political psychological approach

Leadership attributes such as hawk are commonly used in academia and media. However, very few studies empirically examine the concept of ‘hawk’ and show nuances about this leadership attribute in international relations (IR), which inform our theories. This study aims to advance conceptual clarity in IR and address this problem by bringing cases from Middle East and North Africa leaders. By utilizing operational code analysis, I empirically test whether pundits’ assumptions about leaders’ hawkishness are reflected in their political and strategic beliefs. I analyze eight leaders from Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Israel. I statistically compare their results with a norming group of world leaders and within themselves. I use novel data comprising 1307 statements with nearly 2 million words. The results show that leadership attributes such as ‘hawk’ are more nuanced than assumed. The findings challenge the assumption that hawkish leaders are homogenous in their political beliefs.