Analyzing temperature trends using innovative trend analyses in certain regions of Norway

Abstract A number of methods are used in the literature to track and monitor meteorological events in a region and make future predictions. Temperatures are one of the most important parameters that trigger changes in meteorological events. In this study, the trends in temperatures, which are a type of indicator of natural disasters in the Norwegian region, were examined. As trend analysis methods, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), the Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA), the Innovative trend pivot analysis method (ITPAM), and the Mann–Kendall Trend Test (MK) were preferred and data of monthly average temperature were collected from 4 different stations (Bodo, Karasjok, Oslo, and Tromsø) between 1948 and 2023. The results indicate the existence of increasing trends in all regions. This does not represent a risk or negativity for the region, but an advantage for this region. Furthermore, the results indicated that MK, in contrast to the other methods, was inadequate for identifying the specific trend and non-monotonic trend. Besides, in the annual MK analysis, Bodo, Oslo and Tromso displayed significant trends (p value < 0.05) with z-scores of 2.64, 2.48 and 2.07, respectively while with a z-score of 1.45, Karasjok did not exhibited a significant trend. In addition, one of the notable findings in this study is the demonstrated effectiveness of the graphical methods (ITA, ITPAM, and IPTA), as reflected in the trend results. The findings of this study are expected to support institutions or organizations in executing measures for natural disaster mitigation.