Probabilistic analysis of cylindrical shells under continuously varying load combinations

This paper presents a probabilistic design method for cylindrical shells under combined loading without explicitly simulating each load combination. Exemplarily, the combination of axial compression and torsion is considered. The probabilistically motivated design load is a quantile of the buckling load distribution. The stochastic distribution of the buckling load (and hence any quantile) differs for each combination of axial load and torsion. The basic idea of the presented method is to consider the buckling response as a random field, where the parameter describing the load ratio is the field variable. When this random field is characterized, the stochastic distribution may be determined for any load combination without explicitly running a probabilistic analysis for this load combination. This approach is compared to a more simple and straightforward approach of interpolating stochastic moments or quantiles between different load combinations. • Probabilistic numerical study of cylindrical shells under combined loading of axial compression and torsion. • For varying combinations of axial compression and torsion, the stochastic distribution of buckling load changes quantitatively and qualitatively. • For load combinations, which have not been analyzed explicitly, a probabilistically motivated design load can be determined by appropriate interpolation.