High-tech Exports and Economic Сycles: An Analysis of Tendencies in Japan

The foremost aim is to study and adapt the positive experience of developed countries, taking into account negative tendencies, that can be used in the post-war economic recovery of Ukraine. The further aim of the research is to apply the authors’ own approach to analyzing the dynamics of Japan’s high-tech exports. As a tool for the State regulation in the field of innovation and scientific-technical development, the authors have proposed a new methodology for studying the structural dynamics of high-tech exports. This methodology clarifies the economic essence of high-tech export dynamics and identifies three key components: stable growth, accelerated growth, and cyclical growth. Furthermore, it allows for the assessment of how the influence of the cyclical component changes when high-tech exports are analyzed as a share of total industrial exports or as GDP, and compares these results with the structure of Japan’s overall GDP dynamics. The study demonstrates that the dynamics of Japan’s high-tech exports have a cyclical nature of development. Economic cycles with durations of 6.7 and 4.2 years have been identified, and the degree of influence of the cyclical component on the overall tendency has been calculated. The overall weighted influence of the cyclical component on the dynamics of high-tech exports turned out to be significant. The results of this study serve as a basis for forming effective State policy aimed at the economic revival of Ukraine in the post-war period. These conclusions emphasize the importance of considering cyclical components in the strategic planning of high-tech sector development. Prospects for research are related to the study of the aggregate of factors, the calculation of their cyclical characteristics, and the identification of those that have similar periods, phases, and cyclical frequencies, and cause influence on the dynamics of high-tech exports.