Assessing and Analyzing the Level of Informal Employment in Ukraine

The article addresses the pressing issue of informal employment in Ukraine, which poses a significant challenge for the national economy and the social protection of citizens. The study applies a comprehensive approach that combines sociological survey methods and mathematical modeling, particularly Bayesian networks, allowing for the identification of key factors influencing the choice between official and unofficial forms of employment. The results obtained show that the level of education is one of the most significant factors affecting formal employment. A survey conducted among representatives from various regions and sectors of the economy demonstrated that individuals with higher education more often choose official labor relations registration, while those with lower education levels frequently prefer informal employment due to a lack of alternatives or difficulties in finding stable work. In addition to the educational level, important determinants also include age, gender, enterprise size, and industry specificity. In particular, young people are more likely to accept informal employment due to more flexible conditions and the absence of of long-term social commitments. At the same time, in small enterprises and sectors with low levels of regulation (for example, agriculture, trade, and construction), the share of informal labor is higher compared to large corporations. The modeling method with use of Bayesian networks not only allowed for the identification of these dependencies but also for the assessment of the likelihood of choosing formal employment based on a combination of various factors. The findings confirmed the hypothesis that the level of education remains a key predictor of formal employment, while economic and regulatory conditions can significantly change the influence of other variables. Based on the obtained data, a number of practical measures aimed at reducing the scale of informal employment in Ukraine are proposed. Among them are the simplification of administrative procedures for businesses, the reduction of the tax burden on employers, the enhancement of social guarantees for employees, and the activation of informational and educational activities regarding the advantages of official employment.