Challenges of Measuring Business Expectations and Business Uncertainty in the Context of Transformation to the BANI World: A Statistical Approach

The transformation of business expectations in the contemporary BANI world (brittle, anxious, nonlinear, incomprehensible), which has replaced the VUCA environment, is examined. The significance of business expectations as a key tool in economic analysis is explored, particularly their impact on decision-making, investment activity, employment, and pricing. The focus is on the adaptation of businesses in Ukraine to the conditions of the BANI world and methodological approaches to measuring uncertainty and business sentiment. The article identifies international and national organizations engaged in developing methodologies for collecting data on business expectations. Particular attention is given to the analysis of methodologies such as the PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index), which is used to determine economic activity, and the harmonized EU BCS (Business and Consumer Surveys) program. The research is based on a review of international and national indicators, including indices of trust, economic sentiments, employment, and uncertainty, which allow for the assessment of cyclical changes in the economy. An example is provided of the business confidence index, which currently reflects a general Ukrainian trend toward a decrease in economic activity in the context of the crisis. The authors have also analyzed the Business barometer, initiated by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Ukraine, as an important tool for forecasting market conditions. This index takes into account the situation in key sectors of the economy – manufacturing, construction, trade, and services – and allows for the assessment of the current state and expectations of businesses. The methodology for calculating the Business Barometer is based on PMI, ensuring consistency with international standards. The overall conclusion of the article is that measuring business expectations in a BANI world requires continual refinement of methodologies and approaches. In conditions of high uncertainty, adaptability and the ability to respond quickly to changes in economic conditions acquire special significance. The Ukrainian business sector requires further support and the development of forecasting tools to effectively integrate into global economic processes and overcome the challenges of the modern world.