The historical role of system dynamics modelling in understanding and supporting integrated natural resource management

Abstract This article charts the history of how system dynamics modelling (SDM) has evolved in the field of natural resource management from a relatively niche subject to a tool of increasing practical relevance and impact, and encourages practitioners to continue this trend with some suggestions for further promoting SDM for natural resource impact assessment and policy support. It not only traces key developments and thematic shifts but also advocates for SDM as a critical approach for addressing today’s complex and interconnected resource challenges. Starting in the 1970s with the Limits to Growth and a burgeoning environmental movement, the path of SDM applications for natural resource management and assessment is outlined. Models turned in the 1980s to a dominantly ecological focus, considering lake ecosystems and predator–prey dynamics, and tended to be largely single-sector focused, with feedbacks and complexity being used to describe sectoral system dynamics. Since about 2000, SDM has been applied to broader and more integrated natural resource systems and has frequently included stakeholders and participatory methods to co-develop models for increasingly practical applications and support. The emergence of the water–energy–food nexus around 2010 lends itself to SDM studies, including the assessment of climatic and socio-economic futures on resources supply, demand and security, and the impact of policy implementation across whole systems. Stakeholder engagement, participatory modelling, online tools and interfaces, machine learning and targeted, policy-facing studies are opportunities to further promote SDM and systems thinking for natural resource management in an increasingly complex and interconnected world, enhancing its practical impact.