FORECASTING PASSENGER TRAIN SAFE OPERATION THROUGH MARKOV CHAINS: THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL ASPECTS

The article presents the basic theoretical material on the theory of Markov chains. Its concepts are indicated – the steps of the process, conditional and transitional probabilities, a stochastic matrix. A recurrent formula is given. The practical application of the Markov chain theory in the technical system – passenger train – is shown. The states of the system are described, transitional probabilities are calculated and a stochastic matrix is created on their basis. The calculation of all unconditional probabilities of the system states at all steps is shown.