A study on the impact of poverty vulnerability on farmers livelihood choices from the perspective of risk perception: evidence from the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin is a region in China where poverty is relatively concentrated and the ecological environment is extremely fragile. Farmers in this area face numerous risks and challenges in transitioning their livelihoods. Based on survey data collected by the research team on Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development of Agriculture and Rural Areas in the Yellow River Basin from August to September 2022 in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, this study employs poverty vulnerability theory and econometric models to analyze the mechanism through which farmers risk perception influences the impact of poverty vulnerability on their livelihood choices. The research team adopted a combination of stratified and random sampling methods and conducted questionnaire interviews as the primary research approach, obtaining a total of 3,235 farmer questionnaires from six provinces: Qinghai, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan. The findings reveal that: (1) Farmers poverty vulnerability significantly affects their livelihood strategy choices the higher the vulnerability, the more likely they are to adopt agriculture-based livelihood strategies; (2) Farmers perception of policy risk plays a significant mediating role in the effect of poverty vulnerability on livelihood strategy choices poverty vulnerability influences livelihood strategies by lowering farmers perception of policy-related risks; (3) Education level, household size, and social interactions are also important factors influencing farmers livelihood choices. The conclusions of this study provide important insights for advancing rural revitalization in a way that suits local conditions and for promoting the sustainable transformation of farmers livelihoods. It is recommended to enhance farmers livelihood capacity and confidence in development in impoverished areas by improving agricultural subsidy and insurance policies, optimizing the allocation of rural educational resources, and building a clean and transparent government-business relationship.