Persistent Oscillations in the Decadal Prediction of Central Mediterranean Wetting and Drying Phases

Predicting warming patterns is crucial for understanding the trends in precipitation and water demand. Our study exploited advances in weather reanalysis data, focusing on the Standardized Precipitation Index, which reflects anomalies in cumulative precipitation over the past 6 months from 1884 to 2022. Our data-driven model integrates large-scale teleconnection indices and small-scale sea-level pressure data, thereby enhancing the predictive capabilities of future meteorological droughts from 2023 to 2062 in the central Mediterranean. Performance metrics, including a correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a root mean square error of 0.621 during validation (1993 to 2022), confirm the reliability of the model. The model forecasts a decade of drying between 2045 and 2054, followed by an increase in wetting. Alternating wetting and drying cycles have emerged as the dominant outcomes of climate change. These recurring wet–dry cycles in the region require adaptive water management strategies, including drought contingency plans, conservation efforts, and infrastructure improvements to ensure sustainable water resources.