Modeling the Impact of Alcohol Consumption on Road Accidents in Tanzania

This study employs a nonlinear mathematical model to investigate traffic accidents resulting from drivers' alcohol consumption while operating vehicles. The model categorizes drivers into five distinct groups: Nu (non-alcohol users), Eu (individuals at high risk of alcohol use), Mu (moderate alcohol users), Au (addicted alcohol users), and Ru (recovering alcohol users). To analyze the system, the stability theory of differential equations was applied, with particular focus on the alcohol-free and endemic equilibrium states. The basic reproduction number (R₀) was derived to establish the threshold conditions for the elimination or persistence of alcohol use among drivers. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of key parameters on the model’s dynamics. Subsequently, numerical simulations were conducted and presented graphically to demonstrate the model's behavior. The findings highlight that moderate alcohol consumption plays the most significant role in increasing the risk of road accidents.