The Impact of Agrarian Imports from Ukraine on the Economies of European Union Countries

The article analyzes the dynamics and structure of Ukrainian agrarian product imports by EU countries and highlights the main groups of food products imported from Ukraine. Through regression analysis of panel data from 2018 to 2023 for 22 EU countries, a positive impact of imports of specific types of agrarian products on the economic growth of these countries has been identified. It has been confirmed that in the years 2018 to 2023, the GDP of the European Union directly depended on the increase in imports from Ukraine of seeds and fruits of oilseed, fats and oils of animal and plant origin, milk and dairy products, eggs, and natural honey. Along with this, an inverse dependence of the GDP of EU countries on imports from Ukraine of sugar and sugar confectionery has been identified. As a result of the research, the presence of a statistically significant impact of grain imports from Ukraine on the GDP of EU countries has not been confirmed. The article assesses the dependence of economic growth in Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary on the import of agrarian products from Ukraine during the years 2013 to 2023 using the method of linear multiple regression. The study found no statistically significant relationship between the GDP of Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary and the import from Ukraine of seeds and fruits of oilseed, milk and dairy products, eggs, natural honey, sugar, and confectionery made from sugar. The importation of cereals from Ukraine positively influenced the GDP of Bulgaria and Hungary, while there was no impact on the GDP of Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. Additionally, a direct relationship has been found between the GDP of Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and the imports from Ukraine of fats and oils of animal and vegetable origin, while the GDP of Bulgaria and Hungary was not dependent on the imports of these products. Based on the results of the study, it is concluded that agrarian imports from Ukraine did not have a negative impact on the economic growth of all five EU countries that imposed restrictions and bans on the importation of key types of Ukrainian agrarian products. It is assumed that the reduction in 2023 of imports of grain crops from Ukraine by Bulgaria and Hungary, and fats and oils by Poland and Slovakia, could negatively affect the GDP volumes of these countries.