Exposure to refugee camps and voting behavior: a spatial analysis

Abstract In this article, I examine the effects of sudden and unanticipated refugee camp settlements on support for the populist radical right in Sweden, the Sweden Democrats, at both a fine-scale level—voting districts—and at the broader municipality level. By incorporating neighboring districts, I show that the electoral effects from exposure vary with spatial proximity and spatial unit of analysis. The results display an increase in support for the Sweden Democrats in areas exposed to refugee camps, with diminishing effects in neighboring areas. Additionally, the exposure effect is larger in areas that have experienced a high inflow of newly settled asylum recipients but smaller in districts with an overall higher share of foreign-born individuals. Over time, the findings point at converge or alleviating effects. Taken together, these findings suggest that recent changes in the refugee population—rather than the long-term presence of foreign-born individuals—are the more influential driver of support for these parties.