Magnitude, trends, and seasonal variations of road traffic accidents in Ogun State, Nigeria, 2017-2019

Introduction: Globally, road traffic accidents (RTA) are ranked among the eight-leading causes of death. By 2030, RTA is projected to be among the top five causes of morbidity, disability, and mortality worldwide. We assessed the magnitude, trend, common causes and predicted variations of RTA in Ogun State, Nigeria. Methods: We reviewed RTA data from 2017-2019 based on data that was obtained from the Traffic Compliance and Enforcement Corps Ogun State Road Traffic Command. Variables analyzed included gender, location of the RTA cases, time of the year; and associated traffic violations/offences. We analyzed data using frequencies and proportions while additive decomposition model was used in the predictions of the variations in the patterns of RTA occurrences over time. Results: A total of 4,611 RTA events comprising of 3,533 injured cases, 625 deaths and 453 unhurt/not-hospitalized cases were reported. The case fatality rate in the three years under review was 13.6%; with Ado-Odo/Ota an urban Local Government Area (LGA) having the highest (18.7%) and Ogun Waterside a rural LGA the lowest (4.0%). More males were injured (66.1%) and died (72.5%). The most common cause of RTA is speeding (29.4%). The highest number of RTA occurred in December (10.4%) while June had the lowest (6.5%). The decomposition model revealed an increase of 4.96 percentage point in variation rate of RTA every quarter. Conclusion: Road traffic accidents in Ogun State are largely due to preventable human habits such as speeding. The pattern of increase in RTA in the state is likely to continue for decades unless efforts are directed at enhancing drivers ' adoption of preventive behaviours. Strict enforcement of road safety legislation for speeding, and sensitization of road users on the importance of using seat belts are recommended. Monitoring of road usage and sensitization of road users during periods of festivities and the onset of rains should be prioritized by the Road Safety Agencies.