Enhancing Pavement Resilience in Canada Through Adaptive Asphalt Binder Selection

Abstract Climate change is increasingly posing risks to flexible pavements due to rising temperatures and more frequent and intense extreme heat events. As climate patterns shift from historical norms, the vulnerabilities of these pavements become more evident, threatening transportation infrastructure and economic stability. This paper presents a climate change impact assessment on the SUPERPAVE ® asphalt binder Performance Grade (PG) selection for mix design in Canada. Therefore, a tool was firstly developed named as Performance-Graded Asphalt Cement under a Changing Climate (PGAC3) considering projected temperature conditions. Secondly, the relative impact of climate change on design temperatures was studied under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The findings indicate that projected temperature changes are geographically variable and affect critical design factors differently. Notably, case study simulations for a representative city suggested that adapting PG selection to future climate conditions could potentially extend the pavement service life. These insights underscore the critical need for the Canadian transportation sector to prioritize and implement robust climate adaptation strategies and policies.