Independent events in a simple random experiment and the meaning of independence

Abstract We count the number and patterns of pairs and tuples of independent events in the following simple random experiment: first a fair coin is flipped and then a fair die is tossed. The number of independent pairs equals 888,888, whereas the number of independent pairs for a biased coin and a biased die is the more “normal" looking number 124. We show also that the classic example of S. Bernstein of tossing a tetrahedron providing three pairwise independent, but not mutually independent events, is in a certain sense, unstable. This raises a question about the stability of independent events. These observations lead us to discuss two different concepts of independence. We also pose a few problems and hypotheses and give a few illustrative examples. However, in this short note we do not give a review of the vast literature related to these concepts.

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Publication Details

Journal
Annals of Operations Research
Published
2025-05-20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-025-06659-9
Primary Topic
Philosophy and History of Science
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Independent events in a simple random experiment and the meaning of independence

Isaac M. Sonin
Annals of Operations Research
Philosophy and History of Science
article

Independent events in a simple random experiment and the meaning of independence

Isaac M. Sonin
article en

Abstract

Abstract We count the number and patterns of pairs and tuples of independent events in the following simple random experiment: first a fair coin is flipped and then a fair die is tossed. The number of independent pairs equals 888,888, whereas the number of independent pairs for a biased coin and a biased die is the more “normal" looking number 124. We show also that the classic example of S. Bernstein of tossing a tetrahedron providing three pairwise independent, but not mutually independent events, is in a certain sense, unstable. This raises a question about the stability of independent events. These observations lead us to discuss two different concepts of independence. We also pose a few problems and hypotheses and give a few illustrative examples. However, in this short note we do not give a review of the vast literature related to these concepts.

Annals of Operations Research
University of North Carolina at Charlotte (US)
University of North Carolina at Charlotte
Openalex Percentile: Top 85%
Philosophy and History of Science
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Independent events in a simple random experiment and the meaning of independence — Isaac M. Sonin · Annals of Operations Research (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS