Projected Demographic Trends in the Likelihood of Having or Becoming a Dementia Family Caregiver in the U.S. Through 2060

This study predicts how sociodemographic trends-smaller family sizes, increased longevity, and marital patterns-could affect family care for people with dementia through 2060. By coupling dementia information from the Health and Retirement Study with a well-established kinship microsimulation model, we analyze the impact of demographic changes on the future care landscape, focusing on changes in race and gender differences in two key areas: (1) the availability of family caregivers for people with dementia, and (2) the likelihood of having a family member with dementia, among those without dementia. Our model projections suggest that future dementia cohorts will be more likely to have a living spouse than the current ones, with diminishing gender disparities due to increased male longevity. However, racial disparities will persist, particularly for Black women. The likelihood of older adults lacking spouses, children, and siblings will increase, but remain low. For potential caregivers, we predict an increased likelihood and longer duration of exposure to family members with dementia in future birth cohorts, particularly for Black individuals, potentially placing more people at risk of the adverse health and well-being outcomes associated with caregiving.