Future Changes in Carbon Chemistry Under the Implementation of Artificial Ocean Alkalinization Based on CMIP6 Simulations

Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is one of the most promising marine carbon dioxide removal technologies, but its influence on marine carbon chemistry remains unclear. We applied data from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to characterize the temporal and spatial variabilities of future marine carbon chemistry under the implementation of AOA. Our study shows that the marine carbon system varied significantly under the implementation of AOA, but some specific effects may be masked by the forcing of the high carbon emission scenario SSP5-8.5. Based on the CMIP6 protocol, which added 0.14 Pmol of alkalinity into the ocean annually, AOA promoted an increase in DIC, delayed the rise in pCO2, and mitigated declines in pH and Ω, respectively. The temperate oceans in both hemispheres were the most significantly impacted basins, whereas the Southern Ocean was the least affected. During this century, the oceanic carbon sink is expected to intensify rapidly until around the year 2080, and then gradually weaken. The implementation of AOA merely changed the relative strength of the oceanic sink, rather than its overall variation pattern. Furthermore, in the deep ocean, the effect of AOA was present but quite limited in mitigating ocean acidification.