ARIMA consumption forecasting models and ATDC technological optimizations: the case of rice, maize and vegetable production in Mozambique

Food security remains a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture is essential to local economies. In Mozambique, consumption relies mainly on rice, maize and vegetables, three strategic crops under increasing pressure from population growth, urbanization and climate change. The introduction of agricultural technologies by Agricultural Technology Demonstration Centers (ATDCs), notably those established by China, offers an opportunity to improve productivity and food security. This study uses ARIMA models to forecast demand for rice, maize and vegetables in Mozambique up to 2030. It responds to a lack of accurate projections, essential for guiding agricultural and technological strategies. The aim is to anticipate these evolutions in order to adapt ATDC interventions and agricultural policies. The results indicate a moderate increase in rice consumption (from 39.65 kg/capita in 2022 to 42.63 kg/capita in 2030), a sharp rise in vegetable consumption (+56.96%, from 49.35 kg/capita in 2022 to 105.91 kg/capita in 2030) and a significant drop in maize consumption (from 51.03 kg/capita in 2022 to 48.45 kg/capita in 2030). These trends call for the adaptation of agricultural and technological strategies to meet future food needs. Policy implications include strengthening infrastructures, optimizing production chains and integrating predictive models for effective planning. Finally, the study recommends a forward-looking approach to ensure the food security and competitiveness of Mozambique's agricultural sector.