Spatio- Temporal Analysis of Capsicum Cultivation in Solan District (H.P.)

The study was undertaken to analyzed the growth rate, instability, contribution of area and yield of capsicum in Solan district of Himachal Pradesh using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Cuddy Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) and Decomposition Analysis for a period of 25 years using data obtained from Directorate of Agriculture and forecasted the area, production and productivity by adopting ARIMA model for the next five years (2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025).It was observed that the area, production and productivity of capsicum increased during the study period; however, the growth in production (15.13%/annum) was higher than the growth in area (7.59%/annum), whereas growth in productivity was seven per cent per annum.The stability index was found to be positive, indicating that there is less danger for cultivation in the district.Production decomposition analysis showed that the expansion of the area was the primary cause of the production growth, accounting for more than 50 per cent.By using R-studio software, ARIMA (0, 2, 1), ARIMA (0, 2, 1) and ARIMA (0, 2, 1) were identified for forecasting area, production and productivity and the forecast revealed that the area, production and productivity showed an increasing trend for the next five years.