Planning the natural development of a peripheral vertex on the example of a regional airport in Central Europe

In this paper, a young airport in Central Europe is presented as a peripheral node of a complex network, subject to Luce's natural laws of development.Research conducted since the late 1990s has focused on creating models that apply to the entire network.Even the development of the most important nodes of a complex network, the socalled hubs, is considered as a consequence of the topology of the entire network.The paper considers what laws and models can be applied to a single, peripheral network node, compared to the widely used exponential models.The presented analysis of the dynamics of the scheduled traffic at the Lublin Airport allows for forecasting its further development.Thus, the methods proposed here for the case study of a regional airport enable us to specify a forecast for the further development of any peripheral vertex of a complex network of a transportation system.On the basis of this analysis, it was pointed out, among others, that seasonality expressing the dynamics of a complex network, so far expressed in statistics using the time series method can also be approached in the Elliot waves terminology and used to predict the profitability of a regional airport.It was also established, that since 2015 the regional demand for civil aviation operations in the General Aviation category has been saturated at the Lublin Airport, reaching the level of 1750 operations per year.