Population dynamics and human development in Nigeria

Population dynamics has been noted to have diverse effects on human development. This study examined these effects using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) with annual time series data spanning from 1990-2023 which were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, World Development Index and National bureau of statistics. The results show that there is a long run relationship among the study variables. The findings of the study show that domestic capital formation has negative and significant impact on gross national income per capita. Both government expenditure on health and government expenditure on education have positive and significant impact. Labour force has positive insignificant effect while population growth rate has a negative insignificant impact. Furthermore, domestic capital formation, government expenditure on education and population growth rate have positive and significant impact on mean year of schooling while government expenditure on health and labor force has insignificant effect on mean year of schooling with negative and positive impact respectively. Also, domestic capital formation and government expenditure on education have positive and significant impact on life expectancy at birth while government expenditure on health and labour force have negative insignificant impact. Population growth rate also has an indirect significant effect on life expectancy at birth. In conclusion, population dynamics influence mean year of schooling and life expectancy at birth while government expenditure on education and domestic capital formation influence all human development variables. The study therefore recommends that population dynamic variables be improved in order to achieve more rapid and sustainable human development.