Generalized Mathematical Model of Infectious Disease During Medicinal Intervention by Employing Fractional Differential Equations

ABSTRACT Emerging infectious diseases often arise, each presenting unique features and varying degrees of risk. In this study, we develop an extended SEIR model with six compartments and the Caputo fractional differential operator to examine the spread of COVID‐19 in Malaysia during the vaccination campaign. The Adams–Bashforth–Moulton predictor–corrector approach is used to solve the model, resulting in accurate numerical simulations. We demonstrate fundamental mathematical features such as non‐negativity, boundedness, equilibrium locations, and the basic reproduction number. We assess vaccination regimens' impact on disease transmission by calibrating the model using real‐world data. Sensitivity and bifurcation studies show that vaccine efficacy, border control, and quarantine measures all play essential roles in disease mitigation. Notably, our findings show the occurrence of backward bifurcation, indicating that lowering the reproduction number to one is insufficient for disease elimination. These results provide vital insights into effective intervention.

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Publication Details

Journal
Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences
Published
2025-05-19
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.11019
Primary Topic
Fractional Differential Equations Solutions
Type
article
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article

Generalized Mathematical Model of Infectious Disease During Medicinal Intervention by Employing Fractional Differential Equations

Farah Aini Abdullah, Matthew O. Adewole, Shaher Momani, Manal Almuzini et al.
Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences
Fractional Differential Equations Solutions
article

Generalized Mathematical Model of Infectious Disease During Medicinal Intervention by Employing Fractional Differential Equations

Farah Aini Abdullah, Matthew O. Adewole, Shaher Momani, Manal Almuzini, Sami Khuri
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT Emerging infectious diseases often arise, each presenting unique features and varying degrees of risk. In this study, we develop an extended SEIR model with six compartments and the Caputo fractional differential operator to examine the spread of COVID‐19 in Malaysia during the vaccination campaign. The Adams–Bashforth–Moulton predictor–corrector approach is used to solve the model, resulting in accurate numerical simulations. We demonstrate fundamental mathematical features such as non‐negativity, boundedness, equilibrium locations, and the basic reproduction number. We assess vaccination regimens' impact on disease transmission by calibrating the model using real‐world data. Sensitivity and bifurcation studies show that vaccine efficacy, border control, and quarantine measures all play essential roles in disease mitigation. Notably, our findings show the occurrence of backward bifurcation, indicating that lowering the reproduction number to one is insufficient for disease elimination. These results provide vital insights into effective intervention.

Mathematical Methods in the Applied SciencesVol. 48(12)
University of Jordan (JO), American University of Iraq Sulaimani (IQ), Universiti Sains Malaysia (MY), Ajman University (AE), Mountain Top University (NG), American University of Iraq Baghdad
Openalex Percentile: Top 87%
Fractional Differential Equations Solutions
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