Combining Demand for Ecosystem Services with Ecosystem Conditions of Vacant Lots to Support Land Preservation and Restoration Decisions

Urban densification threatens vacant lots in cities, potentially affecting biodiversity and the ecosystem services (ES) they provide. Policymakers require evidence-based tools to balance densification policies and initiatives with the preservation of green spaces. This research proposes a method to assess ecosystem conditions (EC) of vacant lots and combine it with ES demand in order to identify lots that need to be prioritised for preservation and restoration. This method is applied to the Northern Milan intermunicipal area (Italy). By using open-access satellite imagery, indicators for abiotic, biotic, and landscape characteristics were determined for each lot regarding four regulating ES (air purification, runoff mitigation, microclimate regulation, and pollination). The EC assessment provides planners with information on the ecosystems’ qualities and their ability to deliver ecosystem services. Our findings indicate that vacant lots differ in their contribution to ES provision due to variation in abiotic, biotic, and landscape connectivity conditions, underlining the need for a more detailed assessment of the differences between each individual area that composes the green infrastructure. However, challenges related to defining reference levels and the availability of detailed local data need to be addressed to guide planning decisions effectively.