The Level of Production Risks among Smallholder Arabica Coffee Farmers Through BWM and ARP Benchmarking Methods: A Case Study in Bondowoso Regency, East Java Province

Background: Assessing the risk levels faced by smallholder Arabica coffee farmers is essential for identifying potential threats and evaluating suitable mitigation strategies. While various studies have employed diverse methodological approaches, this research focuses on prioritizing risks and providing accurate methods for risk assessment to inform effective recommendations. Methods: The study involved data collection from 183 participants, comprising 173 coffee farmers and 10 key informants. The evaluation of production risk levels utilized the coefficient of variation to analyze variability. Additional risk assessments were conducted using the BWM (best-worst method) and ARP (aggregate risk priority) approaches. Result: The study revealed that the production risk level for Arabica coffee farming is moderate as perceived by farmers. A total of 33 risk events were identified, originating from 32 risk agents. Benchmarking using the BWM and ARP methods yielded differing risk prioritization outcomes for mitigation strategies. The BWM method highlighted biological and environmental risks as the most critical, whereas the ARP method identified weather-related risks as requiring immediate attention. The analysis further demonstrated that the ARP method provided more accurate risk assessment results in the context of the case study compared to the BWM method. The ARP approach identifies weather risk as the top priority for mitigation, with the highest value of 304.59 attributed to the lack of flowering and fruiting caused by low photosynthesis rates due to high cloud cover (E1).