Can We Teach Machines to Select Like a Plant Breeder? A Recommender System Approach to Support Early Generation Selection Decisions Based on Breeders’ Preferences

Plant breeding is considered to be the science and art of genetically improving plants according to human needs. Breeders in this context oftentimes face the difficult task of selecting among thousands of genotypes for dozens of traits simultaneously. Using a breeder’s selection decisions from a commercial wheat breeding program as a case study, this study investigated the possibility of implementing a recommender system based on the breeder’s preferences to support early-generation selection decisions in plant breeding. The target trait was the retrospective binary classification of selected versus non-selected breeding lines during a period of five years, while the selection decisions of the breeder were predicted by various machine learning models. The explained variance of these selection decisions was of moderate magnitude (ρSNP2 = 0.45), and the models’ precision suggested that the breeder’s selection decisions were to some extent predictable (~20%), especially when some of the pending selection candidates were part of the training population (~30%). Training machine learning algorithms with breeders’ selection decisions can thus aid breeders in their decision-making processes, particularly when integrating human and artificial intelligence in the form a recommender system to potentially reduce a breeder’s effort and the required time to find interesting selection candidates.