GRAIN PRODUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SERBIA

Climate change presents a serious challenge to grain production in Serbia, affecting crop yields, soil fertility, and overall agricultural sustainability. Rising temperatures, irregular precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events disrupt grain production, leading to economic losses and food security risks. Maize and wheat, as Serbia’s primary grain crops, are particularly vulnerable to droughts, soil degradation, and water shortages. Serbia's grain production plays a vital role in the economy, covering approximately 1.73 million hectares of land. Maize and wheat are the leading crops, with maize production reaching 6.8 million metric tons in the 2023/24 season, a 48% increase from the previous year, positioning Serbia as a major maize exporter. However, wheat production declined by 15.9% in 2024, totaling 2.9 million tons, highlighting the vulnerability of grain yields to climate variability. Projected climate trends indicate that maize yields could decline by 15-30% by mid-century due to prolonged dry periods, while wheat production faces risks from autumn droughts and increased spring temperatures. Soil erosion and declining organic matter further reduce the land's capacity to support sustainable grain farming. Given these challenges, immediate adaptation strategies are essential. Additionally, climate change exacerbates the risks of mycotoxin contamination, plant diseases, and increased pesticide use. Mycotoxins pose significant health risks to humans and livestock, affecting food safety and trade regulations. Serbia has already faced restrictions on grain exports due to mycotoxin contamination, highlighting the urgency of improved monitoring and mitigation measures. This study explores the impact of climate change on grain production in Serbia, emphasizing the need for technological advancements, improved water management, soil conservation techniques, and resilient crop varieties. Additionally, financial and policy support must play a key role in ensuring the sustainability of Serbia’s grain sector amid a changing climate.