Research on the Precise Regulation of Korla Fragrant Pear Quality Based on Sensitivity Analysis and Artificial Neural Network Model

This study investigated the soil–leaf–fruit relationship in Korla fragrant pears (Pyrus sinkiangensis Yu) to establish a scientific cultivation framework by analyzing soil nutrients (alkali-hydrolyzable nitrogen, available phosphorus, available potassium, and pH at 0–60 cm depth) across key phenological stages (fruit setting, expansion, and maturation), combined with leaf and fruit quality indicators. Artificial neural network modeling demonstrated strong predictive capability (R2 > 0.85), while sensitivity analysis quantified the relative contributions of different factors, revealing that titratable acidity was optimized when available potassium (30–47 mg/kg) in 40–60 cm soil during fruit setting coincided with pH 7.4–7.8 in 20–40 cm, or when pH 7.3–7.7 in 40–60 cm at fruit setting interacted with alkali-hydrolyzable nitrogen (33.0–53.2 mg/kg) in 40–60 cm during maturation. Fruit shape index improvement required available potassium (40–60 mg/kg) in 40–60 cm at maturation combined with leaf total nitrogen (2.0–6.5 mg/kg) at fruit setting, or specific maturation-stage alkali-hydrolyzable nitrogen levels paired with fruit setting SPAD (Soil and Plant Analysis Development) values (30–41). Furthermore, synergistic effects between expansion stage available phosphorus in 40–60 cm soil and leaf SPAD (Soil and Plant Analysis Development) values simultaneously enhanced the soluble solids content while reducing peel thickness. These findings provide precise nutrient management thresholds for quality optimization, offering practical guidance for orchard management to enhance Korla fragrant pears quality through targeted agricultural practices.