MaxEnt Modeling of the Impacts of Human Activities and Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Plantago in China

Human activities exert both beneficial and detrimental impacts on the ecosystem. In recent years, greenhouse gas emissions have significantly increased due to global climate change, causing profound alterations in ecosystem distribution and productivity. The synergistic interplay between climatic shifts and anthropogenic activities is intensifying ecological transformations and disturbances, and accelerating biodiversity depletion. The <i>Plantago</i> genus (<i>Plantaginaceae</i> family) includes 14 herbaceous species among China's flora. This study was conducted to elucidate the spatial distribution of <i>Plantago</i> species patterns across China and evaluate their differential responses to impending climate change and human interventions. In this study, we projected the potential distributions of <i>Plantago</i> species under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) across current and future temporal intervals (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) using the MaxEnt model integrated with ArcGIS V10.8 spatial analysis. A spatial trend analyses was also conducted to assess habitat suitability dynamics by incorporating anthropogenic influence parameters. The model validation yielded AUC values exceeding 0.9, demonstrating excellent model performance and predictive reliability. Precipitation variability and anthropogenic pressure emerged as the most predominant determinants shaping <i>Plantago</i> distributions. Centroid migration analyses further indicated the progressive northward displacement of optimal habitats under the projected climate scenarios. These findings significantly advance our understanding of <i>Plantago</i> species' adaptive responses to environmental changes. This study also offers an invaluable scientific foundation for sustainable resource management and ecological conservation strategies.